<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Aussie/Kiwi M&A/Events]]></title><description><![CDATA[A read across of firm, indicative, and rumoured proposals/events Down Under]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NqGK!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fad95d59b-b605-48d9-b99d-a266952e3fb2_201x184.png</url><title>Aussie/Kiwi M&amp;A/Events</title><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2026 05:54:40 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Quiddity Investment Advisors]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[quiddityadvisors@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[quiddityadvisors@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[quiddityadvisors@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[quiddityadvisors@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[ASM (ASM AU) Delays Scheme Vote As Energy Fuel Secures Conditional Pentagon Funding]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back on the 18th May 2026, Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)&#8216;s Scheme Booklet was dispatched, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd June, and expected implementation on the 7th July.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/asm-asm-au-delays-scheme-vote-as</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/asm-asm-au-delays-scheme-vote-as</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 19 Jun 2026 01:36:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/645f8662-d7c2-4a90-a22f-5fbac233588c_200x200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Back on the 18th May 2026, <strong>Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</strong>&#8216;s Scheme Booklet was dispatched, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd June, and expected implementation on the 7th July.</p></li><li><p>Then a wobble. On the 15th June, with <strong>Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</strong>&#8216;s share price down ~39% since making the Offer, the IE reiterated scrip terms were fair and reasonable.</p></li><li><p>Now the Scheme Meeting has been postponed to a &#8220;<em>later date to be determined</em>&#8220; to prepare supplementary disclosure, after Energy Fuels received a conditional $725mn financing commitment from the DoW.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>ASM is not super liquid. Look away now if this is not your thing</strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>A slightly less clean deal given timing risk.</p></li><li><p>Trading wide at 9.4% gross.</p></li><li><p>If illiquid arbs are your bag, and not already in, depending on borrow cost, look to short Energy Fuels late in its trading day; long ASM, early in its trading day.</p></li><li><p>Shares are down 2.4% today, as I type.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[ OOh!Media (OML AU): Don't Chase This Three-Way Tussle]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 29th April, oOh!Media (OML AU), Australia&#8217;s No.1 player in outdoor advertising, announced Pacific Equity Partners (PEP)&#8217;s A$1.40/share NBIO; then I Squared Capital (ISQ)&#8217;s May 11th A$1.45/share NBIO.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/oohmedia-oml-au-dont-chase-this-three</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/oohmedia-oml-au-dont-chase-this-three</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:25:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dcc1fa59-77e3-4404-ab6a-2338d04bf03b_299x168.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 29th April, <strong>oOh!Media (OML AU)</strong>, Australia&#8217;s No.1 player in outdoor advertising, announced Pacific Equity Partners (PEP)&#8217;s <strong>A$1.40/share</strong> NBIO; then I Squared Capital (ISQ)&#8217;s May 11th <strong>A$1.45/share</strong> NBIO.</p></li><li><p>Both indicative Offers were rejected, however suitors were afforded due diligence. After three weeks, OML <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260615/pdf/070mg0jgrqwnpw.pdf">announced</a> PEP, ISQ <em><strong>and </strong></em>Oaktree have all pitched indicative Offers, some up to <strong>A$1.60/share</strong>.</p></li><li><p>OML has now given all parties further due diligence up to six weeks to firm an Offer. Or Offers. OML has not indicated A$1.60 is a number it will support.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>In<a href="https://skr.ma/GBWuo"> </a><em><strong><a href="https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/oohmedia-oml-au-peps-opportunistic?r=i4l3s">OOh!Media (OML AU): PEP&#8217;s Opportunistic Tilt</a></strong></em>, I was a buyer at A$1.20/share.</p></li><li><p>At A$1.50/share as I type, I&#8217;m less pumped.</p></li><li><p>Offers are indicative. Large downside if this breaks.</p></li><li><p>If not in, I&#8217;d probably hold off until some pullback, if any.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>This insight is labelled bullish as I&#8217;m still not bearish here.</strong></em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Accent Group (AX1 AU): Frasers' On-Market Offer Is Less Opportunistic Than At First Glance]]></title><description><![CDATA[Frasers Group (FRAS LN), footwear/clothing play Accent Group (AX1 AU)&#8216;s largest shareholder (22.9%), has launched an on-market Offer at A$0.65/share, a zero premium to last close.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/accent-group-ax1-au-frasers-on-market</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/accent-group-ax1-au-frasers-on-market</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 02:17:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hoz2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F245223a2-0a06-4bd9-8001-ef9748142630_832x609.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p><strong>Frasers Group (FRAS LN)</strong>, footwear/clothing play <strong>Accent Group (AX1 AU)</strong>&#8216;s largest shareholder (22.9%), has launched an on-market Offer at A$0.65/share, a zero premium to last close.</p></li><li><p>Frasers has been on the scene since August 2024, when it acquired a 14.65% stake; then inked a 25-year strategic partnership in April 2025. And bumped its holding to 19.9%.</p></li><li><p>Optically, $0.65/share appears a steal. Accent is down 73% from its December 2024 high. Yet Frasers raises legitimate concerns on, inter alia, Accent&#8217;s capital allocation priorities and the board&#8217;s remuneration.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>This is effectively a hostile Offer.</p></li><li><p>Frasers concerns with management, and their ability to execute initiatives, appears well founded. As is the question mark over management carrying out their fiduciary duty.</p></li><li><p>Trading 9.2% through terms.</p></li><li><p>Frasers needs to bump.</p></li><li><p>Get some exposure here. But I wouldn&#8217;t aggressively chase it.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Steadfast (SDF AU): Amwins' (Possibly Opportunistic) A$6/Share NBIO]]></title><description><![CDATA[As discussed in Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint, insurance play Steadfast (SDF AU) was reportedly attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/steadfast-sdf-au-amwins-possibly</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/steadfast-sdf-au-amwins-possibly</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 07:10:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6ad487c2-034f-487a-9b68-db0b618f34c9_201x250.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>As discussed in <em><strong><a href="https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/steadfast-sdf-au-suitors-circle-as?r=i4l3s">Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint</a></strong></em>, insurance play <strong>Steadfast (SDF AU)</strong> was reportedly attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.</p></li><li><p>Steadfast has now entered into a process deal with Amwins and Dragoneer at A$6/share by way of a Scheme, a 51.9% premium to undisturbed.</p></li><li><p>Amwins/Dragoneer have been provided with eight weeks of exclusive due diligence access. A firm Offer will requires FIRB and OIO signing off.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Indicative terms appear attractive; but on par with late-Oct 2025 levels when a workplace complaint emerged against the CEO.</p></li><li><p>Terms are not firm.</p></li><li><p>I would not chase this aggressively. Perhaps $5.30-ish, tops.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Matrix Composites (MCE AU): 6th July Vote On Advanced Innergy's Scheme]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back on the 20th April 2026, specialist industry play Matrix Composites & Eng (MCE AU) announced a Scheme with Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH AU).]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/matrix-composites-mce-au-6th-july</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/matrix-composites-mce-au-6th-july</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:11:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0bc02bee-9c2e-4653-9722-29a7fcec15cf_200x200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Back on the 20th April 2026, specialist industry play <strong>Matrix Composites &amp; Eng (MCE AU)</strong> announced a Scheme with <strong>Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH AU)</strong>.</p></li><li><p>AIH offered A$0.40/share, in cash, a 66.7% premium to undisturbed and a seven-year high. Terms have been declared final.</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260604/pdf/070b0hzrs58czk.pdf">The Scheme Booklet is now out</a></strong>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 6th July, and expected implementation on the 23rd July 2026. The IE (BDO) says &#8220;<em>fair &amp; reasonable</em>&#8220;.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>Matrix is super illiquid - look away now if this is not your bag.</strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Clean deal.</p></li><li><p>If small, illiquid arbs are your bag, buy here at A$0.39/share (or better), for a 2.5%/21% gross/annualised spread.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Tyro Payments (TYR AU) Fielding Offers - Again?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play Tyro Payments (TYR AU) provided Potentia with due diligence to &#8220;develop a significantly improved proposal&#8220;.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tyro-payments-tyr-au-fielding-offers</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tyro-payments-tyr-au-fielding-offers</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 02:52:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4603d9d3-b189-4295-86fd-11abbb23bda6_225x225.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Back in January 2023, point-of-sale payments play <strong>Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</strong> provided Potentia with due diligence to &#8220;<em>develop a significantly improved proposal</em>&#8220;. Potentia subsequently walked away in May 2023.</p></li><li><p>On the 12th August 2025, Tyro announced it had received unsolicited NBIOs. This development also came to nought.</p></li><li><p>With shares down 13% YTD, reportedly M&amp;A is back in vogue for Tyro. A scrip Offer from <strong>Judo Capital (JDO AU)</strong> is one rumour doing the rounds.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Tyro&#8217;s metrics appear undemanding.</p></li><li><p>However, there is currently no deal.</p></li><li><p>And there may not be one anytime soon either; and shares continue to drift sideways (to down).</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>This insight is labelled bullish as I&#8217;m not bearish here.</strong></em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Cygnus (CY5 AU): Central Asia Metals' Clean Scheme]]></title><description><![CDATA[Critical metals play Cygnus (CY5 AU) has entered into a Scheme with AIM-listed Central Asia Metals (CAML LN).]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/cygnus-cy5-au-central-asia-metals</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/cygnus-cy5-au-central-asia-metals</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:35:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c8a3304b-cb43-41cc-9e57-55a181b54696_225x225.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Critical metals play <strong>Cygnus (CY5 AU)</strong> has entered into a Scheme with AIM-listed <strong>Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)</strong>.</p></li><li><p>CAML is offering 0.06 new CAML shares for each Cygnus share, or a A$0.176/share indicative Offer price, which backs out a 60% premium to last close.</p></li><li><p>Cygnus shareholders will hold ~30% of the enlarged mining play. ~29% of Cygnus shareholders are supportive. Looks clean. Just no ASX listing for CAML (AFAIK).</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>Cygnus is illiquid - look away now if that is not your bag.</strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>This appears another straightforward mining merger.</p></li><li><p>It <em>may</em> trade wide given the cross border nature of the transaction, and Cygnus&#8217; illiquidity.</p></li><li><p>You <em>could</em> look to take down borrow in CAML.</p></li><li><p>Depending on your copper/lithium tilt, you might just want to be long Cygnus.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM's Advances Offer Benefits & ALX's Tepid Response]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Trade:]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-ifms-advances</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-ifms-advances</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:21:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d3314327-a117-4921-86e7-73cc27bf5437_200x200.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>The 45% acceptance threshold is doable, and the market is hedging this outcome.</p></li><li><p>Trading tight at A$5.04/share as I type or 1.2% gross.</p></li><li><p>If not in, I&#8217;d be looking elsewhere. I wouldn&#8217;t short it here.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><strong>Key dates from here</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>IFM had indicated that it will give a Notice of Status of Conditions on <strong>4th June 2026</strong>.</p></li><li><p>Next close of the Offer is the <strong>11th June 2026</strong>.</p></li></ul></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[ReadyTech (RDY AU) Rejects Total Specific Solution's NBIO]]></title><description><![CDATA[This morning (1st June), in response to an AFR article, Saas&#8217;s provider ReadyTech Holdings (RDY AU) confirmed Total Specific Solutions (TSS) has submitted a conditional NBIO.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/readytech-rdy-au-rejects-total-specific</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/readytech-rdy-au-rejects-total-specific</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 05:51:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/95460262-9f1d-46f0-af6d-10bbf819f739_290x174.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>This morning (1st June), in response to an AFR article, Saas&#8217;s provider <strong>ReadyTech Holdings (RDY AU) </strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260601/pdf/0705mm7296gc3f.pdf">confirmed</a> Total Specific Solutions (TSS) has submitted a conditional NBIO.</p></li><li><p>TSS is offering A$2.00/share by way of a Scheme in parallel with A$1.75/share conditional Offer predicated on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.</p></li><li><p>In response, ReadyTech said it &#8220;<em>has determined to reject the on the basis that it does not reflect the inherent value of ReadyTech ... and ... would not be executable</em>&#8220;.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>ReadyTech is illiquid - look away now if this is not your thing.</strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Readytech was trading marginally above a six-year low - before the Offer.</p></li><li><p><strong>Pemba Capital &amp; Microequities will not be supportive.</strong></p></li><li><p>The share price is up 21% at A$1.68/share.</p></li><li><p>I would not chase this.</p></li><li><p>If illiquid indicative arbs are your bag, get involved in any material weakness.</p></li></ul><p><strong>This insight is labelled bullish as I&#8217;m not bearish here.</strong></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bapcor (BAP AU): Distressed Play In Need Of Distressed Buyer]]></title><description><![CDATA[After Bapcor (BAP AU) guided weaker FY24E numbers, Bain tabled a A$5.40/share indicative Offer on the 11th June 2024.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/bapcor-bap-au-distressed-play-in</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/bapcor-bap-au-distressed-play-in</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 04:05:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/05773124-f1aa-4bf3-9a79-5ccd43e7c5af_200x200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>After <strong>Bapcor (BAP AU)</strong> guided weaker FY24E numbers, Bain tabled a A$5.40/share indicative Offer on the 11th June 2024. Bapcor summarily rejected terms on the 9th July.</p></li><li><p>Since that rejection, Bapcor&#8217;s share price has cratered 87% following repeated earnings downgrades plus a heavily discounted equity raise this past February.</p></li><li><p>Tanarra and Spheria remain steadfast in their holdings; but AustralianSuper has now exited. At these distressed levels, you can envisage a PE outfit running a ruler over the company</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Bapcor remains the dominant player in this space.</p></li><li><p>Ops <em>may</em> benefit from being taken private by a special sits fund.</p></li><li><p>However, this is one stock I would not aggressively seek exposure in.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU): BGH & Trouchet Family Return To The Well]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back on the 16th June 2025, dual-listed Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU) announced an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the founding Trouchet family.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tourism-holdings-thl-nzau-bgh-and</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tourism-holdings-thl-nzau-bgh-and</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 01:44:02 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0ce51cd2-d72b-42fd-8930-c2b9d178c5d9_200x200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Back on the 16th June 2025, dual-listed <strong>Tourism Holdings (THL NZ/AU)</strong> announced an unsolicited NBIO from a consortium comprising BGH Capital and the founding Trouchet family.</p></li><li><p>The consortium, holding 19.9% of shares out, offered <strong>NZ$2.30/share</strong> for the world&#8217;s largest commercial recreation vehicle rental operator. THL summarily rejected terms. Then crickets.</p></li><li><p>THL announced this morning a profit downgrade; <em><strong>and </strong></em>a revised NBIO from the consortium of <strong>NZ$3.10/share</strong>. ~16% of the register is supportive. The proposal expires on the 12th June.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>Tourism Holdings (THL NZ) is illiquid. Look away now if that is not your thing</strong></em></p><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>This Offer is less opportunistic. And key shareholders are supportive.</p></li><li><p>THL <em>should</em> engage.</p></li><li><p>If small, illiquid, <em>and</em> non-binding arbs, are your bag, I&#8217;d be buying here.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): The IE Says NOT Fair & Reasonable. All Eyes On Skyway's Put Option]]></title><description><![CDATA[A lot to unpack: the Panel declines IFM&#8217;s application; the Skyway ROFO has expired; and the Target Statement is now out - the IE says NOT fair and NOT reasonable.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-the-ie-says</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-the-ie-says</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 02:14:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0797b9c1-6b64-4288-97e7-4e4f586f6fd0_200x200.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>A lot to unpack: the Panel declines IFM&#8217;s application; the <strong>Skyway ROFO</strong> has expired; and the Target Statement is now out - the IE says <strong>NOT fair and NOT reasonable</strong>.</p></li><li><p>The ROFO expiration should come as no surprise. Nor should the IE conclusion. IFM&#8217;s independent directors previously issued a <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260506/pdf/06z8zrlbwr8xht.pdf">strongly worded rebuttal</a> to IFM&#8217;s Offer<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260506/pdf/06z8zrlbwr8xht.pdf">.</a></p></li><li><p>A key tenant of IFM&#8217;s Offer evolves around the Skyworth put option: would/will IFM waive the put condition; or Ontario Teachers&#8217; Pension Plan (OTPP) irrevocably waives its right to put?</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Intriguing situation.</p></li><li><p>The 45% acceptance threshold remains doable despite a hostile situation and considerable IE/ID pushback.</p></li><li><p>If not in, I&#8217;d be picking up shares on weakness.</p></li><li><p>IF IFM closes in on the 45% level, expect them to waive the Skyworth put condition.</p></li><li><p>Key dates from here:</p><ul><li><p>HSR Act expiration period occurs soon.</p></li><li><p>EC response due out on around the 5th June</p></li><li><p>Next close of the Offer: 11th June</p></li></ul></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Arafura Rare Earths (ARU AU): Canberra Helps Backstop Nolan's Offtake]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 21st October 2025, as part of a US-Australia bilateral framework, Australia said it would provide a US$100mn equity investment in Gina Rinehart-backed Arafura (ARU AU)&#8216;s Nolans project.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/arafura-rare-earths-aru-au-canberra</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/arafura-rare-earths-aru-au-canberra</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2026 05:29:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eaa42602-7874-4a04-a937-76c6afb4c8de_640x360.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 21st October 2025, as part of a US-Australia bilateral framework, Australia said it would provide a US$100mn equity investment in Gina Rinehart-backed <strong>Arafura (ARU AU)</strong>&#8216;s Nolans project.</p></li><li><p>Arafura has now announced it will kickstart Nolan&#8217;s development after the Aussie government confirmed &#8220;up to 500 tonnes p.a<em>.</em>&#8220; from the rare-earth project would be included in its strategic reserve.</p></li><li><p>The Aussie commitment represents 14% of Nolans&#8217; binding offtake target.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Arafura ARU AU)</strong> is a poster-child for Aussie rare earth plays.</p></li><li><p>It is also up 82% in the last 12 months.</p></li><li><p>I don&#8217;t have a strong conviction here.</p></li><li><p>But if seeking (additional/new) rare earth exposure Down Under, Arafura is one of your best bets.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Webjet (WJL AU) (Further) Rolls Over After Ariadne & BGH Terminate Co-Op]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 12th May 2025, BGH and Portfolio Services, an entity associated with Ariadne Australia (ARA AU) and Gary Weiss, proposed a A$0.80/share cash Offer for Webjet Group (WJL AU).]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/webjet-wjl-au-further-rolls-over</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/webjet-wjl-au-further-rolls-over</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 01:25:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f95e11da-06f7-4e67-82af-4a335ed7425e_267x189.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 12th May 2025, BGH and Portfolio Services, an entity associated with <strong>Ariadne Australia (ARA AU)</strong> and <strong>Gary Weiss</strong>, proposed a A$0.80/share cash Offer for <strong>Webjet Group (WJL AU)</strong>.</p></li><li><p>That kickstarted a competitive bidding situation with <strong>Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</strong>, culminating in Webjet ceasing discussions with both Helloworld and BGH/Weiss on the 13th Feb 2026.</p></li><li><p>Then crickets. <strong>BGH and Ariadne have now terminated their partnership</strong>. Webjet concurrently announces <em>okay</em> FY26 numbers. The share price is currently ~54% adrift of Helloworld &amp; BGH/Ariadne&#8217;s NBIOs.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>At this price level, I doubt <strong>Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU)</strong>, <strong>Ariadne Australia (ARA AU)</strong>, and/or <strong>BGH</strong> are out of the picture.</p></li><li><p>Still, absent an Offer (indicative or otherwise), I&#8217;d be looking elsewhere.</p></li><li><p>The share price fell 15% as I typed this note.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Tuas (TUA AU): Even IF In Breach, This Is A Buy]]></title><description><![CDATA[Aussie/Singapore telco play Tuas (TUA AU) is down 55% (63% at one point) after Singapore&#8217;s telco regulator Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) said Tuas may have been using unapproved spectrum.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tuas-tua-au-even-if-in-breach-this</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/tuas-tua-au-even-if-in-breach-this</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2026 10:13:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/88132bb0-e9cd-43e6-b05b-4fdade58fe74_225x225.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Aussie/Singapore telco play <strong>Tuas (TUA AU)</strong> is down 55% (63% at one point) after Singapore&#8217;s telco regulator Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) said Tuas <em><strong>may </strong></em>have been using unapproved spectrum.</p></li><li><p>Concurrently, IMDA halted its assessment of the proposed consolidation between <strong>Keppel (KEP SP)</strong>&#8216;s M1 and Tuas&#8217; Simba Telecom until further notice. That consolidation was announced last August.</p></li><li><p>Tuas <em>was</em> trading at A$5.51/share prior to the August announcement, and is now at $2.75, or a A$1.5bn market cap hit. That&#8217;s excessive.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Despite an uncertain backdrop, Tuas&#8217; share price appears unduly beaten up here.</p></li><li><p>Yes - absent the M1 merger, Tuas remains Singapore&#8217;s budget operator.</p></li><li><p>But this is still a short-term buy.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[European Lithium (EUR AU) & Critical Metals (CRML US) Enter Into Reverse Scheme]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 28th April, European Lithium (EUR AU)&#8216;s ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US) announced a non-binding reverse takeover via a scrip deal.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/european-lithium-eur-au-and-critical</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/european-lithium-eur-au-and-critical</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2026 04:25:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/517063aa-cace-4bc8-b15e-a545d8d166c8_367x137.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 28th April, <strong>European Lithium (EUR AU)</strong>&#8216;s ~34.4% held <strong>Critical Metals (CRML US)</strong> announced a non-binding reverse takeover via a scrip deal. A Scheme has now been entered into.</p></li><li><p>CRML intends to issue 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share - same as the NBIO. The implied value per CRML scrip is A$0.58/share.</p></li><li><p>A successful merger sees 100% of the Tanbreez Rare Earth project under one roof. The Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 3Q26, as is implementation.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade</strong>:</p><ul><li><p>Clean deal.</p></li><li><p>CRML borrow looks difficult to source.</p></li><li><p>You could simply go outright long in EUR, to capture the holding company discount into CRML.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU): 22nd June Vote On Energy Fuel's Scheme]]></title><description><![CDATA[Back on the 21st Jan 2026, rare earth play Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) (&#8221;ASM&#8221;) entered into a Scheme with Energy Fuels (UUUU US).]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/australian-strategic-materials-asm-040</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/australian-strategic-materials-asm-040</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 18 May 2026 08:28:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fb2d472f-e462-4596-bb14-5c7807a5a018_200x200.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>Back on the 21st Jan 2026, rare earth play <strong>Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</strong> (&#8221;ASM&#8221;) entered into a Scheme with <strong>Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</strong>.</p></li><li><p>Energy Fuels offered 0.053 new Energy Fuel shares PLUS an unfranked dividend up to A$0.13/share, or A$1.60/share all-in, a 121% premium to undisturbed. Ian Gandal, ASM&#8217;s largest shareholder, was supportive.</p></li><li><p><strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260518/pdf/06zplyjb1dl7hh.pdf">The Scheme Booklet is now out</a></strong>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd June, and expected implementation on the 7th July 2026. The IE (BDO) says &#8220;<em>fair &amp; reasonable</em>&#8220;.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Clean deal.</p></li><li><p>Trading wide-ish (2.9% gross) as it&#8217;s a small deal with a large deal break.</p></li><li><p>If illiquid arbs are your thing, and not already in, depending on borrow cost, look to short Energy Fuels late in its trading day; long ASM, early in its trading day.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Charter Hall Ups Stake Ahead Of Abacus Group (ABG AU)'s Internalisation]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 4th February 2026, Abacus Group (ABG AU) announced it is in preliminary discussions with 19.7%-held Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) regarding the potential internalisation of ASK&#8217;s management functions.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/charter-hall-ups-stake-ahead-of-abacus</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/charter-hall-ups-stake-ahead-of-abacus</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 02:17:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/be48312b-33b7-4979-a3ec-31838c6a4379_351x144.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 4th February 2026, <strong>Abacus Group (ABG AU)</strong> announced it is in preliminary discussions with 19.7%-held <strong>Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</strong> regarding the potential internalisation of ASK&#8217;s management functions.</p></li><li><p>When ABG and ASK de-stapled in 2023, the physical assets went into ASK, while the management function remained with ABG. That is, ASK pays ABG an annual management services fee.</p></li><li><p>This expected cleaner/delineation structure was likely not lost on <strong>Charter Hall (CHC AU)</strong>, which announced a 5.837% stake in ABG last month.</p></li></ul><p><em><strong>Abacus Group (ABG AU) is not super liquid. Look away now if this is not your bag.</strong></em></p><div><hr></div><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>Abacus Group (ABG AU)</strong> is not expensive versus peers and historical metrics.</p></li><li><p><strong>Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)&#8216;</strong>s internalisation and the advent of <strong>Charter Hall (CHC AU)</strong> on the register would suggest an opportunity to get some exposure.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Titomic Ltd (TTT AU)'s US Redomiciliation]]></title><description><![CDATA[Titomic (TTT AU), a manufacturing/tech company, is proposing a US redomiciliation via a primary listing on the NYSE and a secondary Aussie listing (CDI).]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/titomic-ltd-ttt-aus-us-redomiciliation</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/titomic-ltd-ttt-aus-us-redomiciliation</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 03:17:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/48442e56-49b7-4144-9450-18c57079509a_298x169.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p><strong>Titomic (TTT AU)</strong>, a manufacturing/tech company, is proposing a US redomiciliation via a primary listing on the NYSE and a secondary Aussie listing (CDI).</p></li><li><p>Titomic flagged this expected development on the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260312/pdf/06xbb2c4g60690.pdf">12th March 2026</a>, to reflect Titomic&#8217;s expanding activities within the US defense, aerospace, and industrial markets.</p></li><li><p>Titomic&#8217;s redomiciliation follows <strong>Nova Minerals (NVA AU</strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nova-minerals-ltd">)</a> recent lead; although Nova&#8217;s move was largely predicated on Nova losing its foreign private issuer status.</p></li></ul>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM's Offer Now Open; Taps Panel Over OTPP's ROFO]]></title><description><![CDATA[On the 6th May, Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) declared IFM&#8217;s Offer to be low, opportunistic, and highly conditional.]]></description><link>https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-ifms-offer-now</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://oz.quiddityresearch.co/p/atlas-arteria-alx-au-ifms-offer-now</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Quiddity Research]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2026 00:49:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0cc8154d-a955-4e84-856d-77e37cbfcef5_200x200.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p>On the 6th May, <strong>Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</strong> declared IFM&#8217;s Offer to be low, opportunistic, and highly conditional. And tapped the Takeovers Panel to resolve concerns regarding the Offer structure.</p></li><li><p>The Panel subsequently declined to make interim orders, without elaboration. IFM was now free to dispatch its Bidder&#8217;s Statement, which it has now down. The Offer is open for tendering.</p></li><li><p>Not to be outdone, IFM has lodged its own Panel application, specifically centred on Chicago Skyway&#8217;s right of first offer involving Ontario Teachers.</p></li></ul><p><strong>The Trade:</strong></p><ul><li><p>IFM&#8217;s Panel application has merit. Although within its rights to do so, Atlas&#8217; obfuscating on the ROFO is unprofessional. And timing <em>is</em> curious.</p></li><li><p>The 45% acceptance threshold remains doable in this hostile situation.</p></li><li><p>If not in, I&#8217;d be picking up shares and on weakness.</p></li></ul>
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