Ingenia (INA AU)‘s board is, evidently, not the biggest supporter of Warburg, after repeatedly/stubbornly (?) rebuffing its NBIOs, only to enter into a process deed with AVID’s leapfrogged NBIO.

On the 28th October, Warburg, in tandem with Australian Retirement Trust and the Lederer family, bumped A$0.10/share to A$5.50/share including (up to) a A$0.05/share distribution for 1H27E.

That NBIO was A$0.10/share above AVID’s unsolicited offer. AVID has now matched those terms, maintaining its process deed, and in turn, terminating Warburg’s DD access. Expect Warburg to counter.

As part of its 18th August A$4.75/share Scheme Offer for Reliance Worldwide (RWC AU), a manufacturer of plumbing components, Brookfield afforded Reliance with a “go shop” provision for 30 days.

That provision, now concluded, was likely put in place to placate AusSuper, which has recently flexed its muscles in takeover situations. AusSuper now holds 18.07% of shares out.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 4th December Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 18th December. The IE (Grant Thornton) concluded “fair and reasonable“.

Back on the 15th June 2026, Frasers (FRAS LN), footwear/clothing play Accent (AX1 AU)‘s largest shareholder (22.3%), launched a hostile on-market Offer at A$0.65/share, a zero premium to last close.

Just 0.6% of shares out have since tendered. Frasers has now declared its Offer, currently scheduled to close on the 29th January 2027, best & final.

There’s no love lost between Frasers and Accent’s chairman Lawrence Myers. And the spectre of a second strike at next month’s AGM, and subsequent board spill, loom.

In Ingenia (INA AU): AVID Steps Up. Warburg Will Counter/Match. Peet Is A Buy, as the title suggests, I expected Warburg to match/bump. And so they have.

Warburg, in tandem with Australian Retirement Trust and the Lederer family, has bumped A$0.10/share to A$5.50/share including (up to) a A$0.05/share distribution for 1H27E.

This triggers AVID’s matching rights under the Process Deed with Ingenia (INA AU). It has until the 1st November to respond. But Warburg is very much in the driver’s seat.

Since African-focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) entered a A$0.354/share Scheme with Zhejiang Huayou (603799 CH) on the 7th May this year, updates have been thin in the ground.

Yesterday, (26th Oct), Atlantic announced Huayou had secured Ghana’s primary sovereign hurdle to acquire Elevra Lithium (ELV AU)‘s 22.5% direct stake in the Ewoyaa Lithium Project.

This development should accelerate the Scheme timetable; although securing implementation by 2026 year-end is probably a stretch.

Aussie’s porous press was hard at work yesterday morning as both the AFR and Australian reported AVID Property interloping for Ingenia (INA AU). Ingenia subsequently confirmed the bid.

Including the 1H27 A$0.05/share distribution (up to), AVID’s NBIO, via a Scheme, is A$5.40/share. Ingenia has granted AVID six weeks of “soft” due diligence; and terminated Warburg’s data room access.

As with Warburg’s NBIO, AVID’s terms are conditional on Ingenia ditching its Peet Ltd (PPC AU) Scheme. That Offer looks toast. Right here, Peet is attractive.

On the 21st August, Steadfast (SDF AU) announced Amwins/Dragoneer/KKR had firmed their $6/share Scheme bid.

The board is unanimous. The cash consideration included the FY26 A$0.1275/share dividend (3rd Sept record date), therefore the Scheme consideration is A$5.8725/share.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 27th November Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 22nd December. The IE (Kroll) concluded “fair and reasonable”.

As part of its A$4.75/share Scheme Offer for Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU), a manufacturer of plumbing components, Brookfield afforded Reliance with a “go shop” provision for 30 days.

That provision has concluded, and as announced on the 19th October, no alternative proposal emerged. Dispatch of the Scheme Booklet is expected early November, and a Scheme Meeting early-to-mid December.

AustralianSuper has now thrice bumped its holding, post-deal-announcement, the latest after the “go shop” expiry. My bet is they are supportive. The market is saying otherwise.

On the 17th August, Ausgold (AUC AU) entered into a Scheme with OceanaGold (OGC CN). OceanaGold offered 0.03365 new shares per Ausgold share. A capped cash option (A$1.36/share) is afforded.

Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 27th November Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 11th December. The IE (Lonergan Edwards) concluded “fair and reasonable“. Clean deal.

On then 26th August, real-estate developer Peet (PPC AU) entered into a scrip Scheme with Ingenia (INA AU). Major shareholder (Anthony Lennon; ~14.5%) and board are/were supportive. It looked clean.

A number of shareholders immediately opposed the deal. Then Warburg pitched four proposals for Ingenia, eventually leading to Ingenia opening up its books. Those negotiations appear to be progressing positively.

The possible breakdown in the Stockton JV, a key condition to the Scheme, sees Peet further thrown to the curb, with the share price falling ~9% today.

Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) has announced a A$11.80/share non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s-backed TAL Daiichi Life Australia.

That’s a 19.8% premium to last close. TAL Daiichi Life is Challenger’s largest shareholder with 20.5%.

Challenger is weighing the benefits of the proposal. The board should engage. Optically and metrically, pricing is fair. Scope for a bump.

At one stage, there was five suitors for FleetPartners (FPR AU). Element Fleet (EFN CN) and Smartgroup (SIQ AU) walked, leaving SG Fleet, Orix (8591 JP), and Sumitomo (8053 JP).

FleetPartners has now entered into a SID with PEP’s SG Fleet at A$5.30/share, a 87.3% premium to undisturbed. Franking credits may be attached to the FY26 final and special dividends.

Timing from here: Scheme Meeting to be held in Feb 2027, and implementation by the end of March 2027.

EQT has now entered into a SID with Australia’s largest garbage and waste disposal play Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU), at A$3.095/share, a 32.1% premium to undisturbed.

Never any doubt right? Well, not quite. A three-peat of notices delaying firm terms; plus last Friday’s price action all-but suggesting someone (s) knew something was amiss.

Timing from here: Scheme Meeting to be held before the end of Feb 2027, and implementation by the end of March 2027.

In MAAS Group (MGH AU): Wes Bumps Stake After ACCC Clears Heidelberg Sale, I mused whether the market would re-rate MAAS as an infrastructure/ “AI-enabler” rather than a contractor currently.

Given Maas Group (MGH AU) had hitched its caboose to Firmus (both equity and contractual counterparty), the answer was quite a lot. Until Firmus yanked its super-hyped IPO.

Maas is down 53% from its recent high. The Heidelberg sale is now complete. Buybacks refreshed. 33% of Firmus’ invoices paid. But “cheap” isn’t a thesis on its own.

Austal (ASB AU) hasn’t always seen eye to eye with Hanwha. An (any?) alternative bidder for the US ops is preferable. I’m not sure Wildcat Infrastructure is the best bet.

Zero shipbuilding track record, a defense division that’s months old, and a NBIO contingent on due diligence. Plus unknown funding. It’s no wonder Hanwha’s DD has been extended.

Wildcat’s pitch is political. And the Pentagon has reportedly been stalling talks with Hanwha. Yet, CFIUS previously indicated it had no unresolved national-security concerns regarding Hanwha taking 100% in Austal.

On the 5th October 2026, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) (finally) extended due diligence to Warburg Pincus on a non-exclusive basis, after Warburg bumped (again) its non-binding terms to A$5.25/share.

In Ingenia (INA AU) Engages With Warburg. That’s The Right Outcome, I mused there was scope for a bump. Warburg will now allow the 1H27 distribution (~A$0.05/share) to be added.

With conditions. Access to exclusive DD. And that the revised proposal is more favourable than Ingenia taking out Peet Ltd (PPC AU). Ingenia’s board has until 19th October to decide.

Back on the 18th August 2026, EQT Holdings (EQT AU), a corporate trustee and fiduciary-services outfit, announced a NBIO from TPG of A$24.55/share, by way of a Scheme.

A littler a week later, BGH Capital lobbed a A$24.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme. EQT considered both NBIOs low-balled, but was willing to engage.

Reportedly, TPG has acquired 14.9% in EQT. At $23.50/share. Conscious of the ongoing ASIC litigation and super-exit restructuring costs, evidently this shareholder considered the NBIO terms to be full.

Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.

Cosette issued a “material adverse change“ notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne’s earnings guidance. The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.

Cosette’s concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.

EBOS Group (EBO AU), a healthcare and animal-care distribution group, is currently trading around a six-year low.

That seems a tad harsh with bottom-line earnings up 39% over that timeframe. And a trailing yield of ~6.5%, well above peers.

The Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse combination remains a structural competitive concern. But right here, I’d be surprised if (potential) suitors are not running a ruler over EBOS.

After Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) tabled a “superior” cash/scrip Offer, via a Scheme, for Vault Minerals (VAU AU) on the 6th July, Regis Resources (RRL AU) folded its tent (as widely expected).

Genesis subsequently firmed terms on the 14th July, offering 0.7629 new GMD shares for every Vault share, plus A$0.475/share in cash - for an implied Offer consideration of A$5.274/share.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a 11th November Scheme Meeting, and expected implementation on the 25th November. The IE (BDO) concluded “ fair and reasonable“. Clean deal.