In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.

The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter’s processing capacity earlier this year.

The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.

On the 19th May 2026, European Lithium (EUR AU) entered into a reverse Scheme via a scrip deal with ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US).

CRML initially offered 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share. After CRML’s shares cratered post-deal announcement, CRML revised with collared scrip terms.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd October, and expected implementation on the 5th November. The IE (Horizon Nexus) concluded “NOT fair BUT reasonable“.

After four weeks of due diligence, Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU), a manufacturer of plumbing components, has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) with Brookfield.

Terms are A$4.75/share (or US$3.638/share), in cash, a 31.5% premium to undisturbed, unchanged from the Process Deed. Terms are not final.

The binding SID provides Reliance with a “go shop” provision for 30 days. After AustralianSuper bumped its holding, twice, post-deal-announcement, that might be worthwhile pursuing.

On the 13th August, EQT proposed taking Australia’s largest garbage and waste disposal play Cleanaway Waste (CWY AU) private, via a Scheme, at A$3.13/share, a 32.1% premium to undisturbed.

EQT was afforded nine weeks of exclusive DD; and announced yesterday nothing had arisen in its review that was likely to cause it not to proceed on the same terms.

All good? Mostly. There’s some pushback in the market CWY’s management’s backing an (exclusive) Offer as the Iran war suppressed CWY’s share price. I’m not a buyer into that narrative.

Back on the 18th August 2026, Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU) entered into a process deed with Brookfield, potentially leading to a A$4.75/share Offer by way of a Scheme.

Brookfield was granted four weeks of additional exclusive due diligence to “progress the proposal“. That exclusivity expires today.

Should Brookfield firm terms, Reliance is permitted to “go shop” for 30 days. After AustralianSuper bumped its holding, twice, post-deal-announcement, a higher price may be warranted.

When Austal Ltd (ASB AU) confirmed preliminary discussion with Wildcat Infrastructure, I mused this may be a ruse to extract more gruel from Hanwha. I was clearly too cynical.

A short while ago, Austal confirmed Wildcat has pitched a “non-binding indication of interest“ for Austal’s US ops at an EV of US$1.25-1.35bn, a ~12.5% premium to Hanwha’s indicative terms.

Wildcat is requesting for four weeks of due diligence. Austal is mulling its options. Hanwha has the clout to match and/or exceed Wildcat’s terms.

Back in 2023, asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU) fielded Offers from Regal and GQG, neither of which gained traction.

River Capital, which initially teamed up with Regal, steadily mopped up shares, and currently holds ~43%. Late-August, River and PAC announced a backdoor merger via new shares at A$13/share.

ROC Capital pitched an Offer for PAC back in May. Apparently River sat in on negotiations. Roc reckons River used those discussions to its advantage. PAC sees it otherwise.

On the 26th August, real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU) entered into cash/scrip Offer by way of a Scheme with Ingenia Communities (INA AU).

The Scheme appeared clean. Decent premium to NTA. Major shareholder (of Peet) support. However, Ingenia’s share price has fallen 13% since the transaction was announced.

This morning, Ingenia announced it has received, and rejected, a NBIO of A$4.75/share (in cash) from Warburg Pincus. The proposal is contingent on Ingenia not proceeding with the Peet Offer.

Real estate developer Peet Ltd (PPC AU) has entered into a Scheme with Ingenia Communities (INA AU).

Ingenia is offering 0.3367 new shares plus A$0.68/share in cash for each Peet share, or an implied price of A$2.185/share (when including the A$0.065/share final dividend - 8th September ex-date).

Major shareholder (Anthony Lennon; ~14.5%) and board are supportive. Mix-and-match facilities afforded (subject to clawback). Expected late-December implementation. Looks clean

Back on the 27th July 2026, gold/copper exploration play Carnaby Resources (CNB AU) entered into a Scheme with Evolution Mining (EVN AU).

Evolution offered 0.0682 new shares for each Carnaby share, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.77/share, a 60.4% premium. Post merger, Carnaby shareholders would hold ~0.9% in the enlarged entity.

Carnaby’s board unanimously support terms. Directors hold 7.3%. Retail pushback should be limited: scrip terms are now up ~41% since the Offer was announced.

Rumours swirled this morning that Oaktree Capital Management was running a ruler over gaming/hospitality play SkyCity Entertainment (SKC AU).

In response to media speculation, SkyCity announced it had received two NBIOs in May: one at NZ$0.70/share from Oaktree; and one at NZ$0.75/share from “another party”.

The AFR reckons the mystery buyer is Sam Arnaout’s Iris Capital, the owner of Casino Canberra and Alice Spring’s Lasseters Hotel Casino. SkyCity rejected both Offers.

Back on the 10th June, Steadfast (SDF AU)entered into a process deal with Amwins/Dragoneer/KKR at A$6/share by way of a Scheme, a 51.9% premium to undisturbed.

The suitors were provided with eight weeks of exclusive due diligence access, which was extended to the 21st August, all while telegraphing negotiations were progressing nicely.

On the 21st August, Steadfast announced Amwins/Dragoneer/KKR had firmed their $6/share Scheme bid. Mid-late December implementation expected. The board is unanimous. The Offer price is not final.

On the 18th August, EQT Holdings (EQT AU), a corporate trustee and fiduciary-services outfit, announced a NBIO from TPG of A$24.55/share, by way of a Scheme.

TPG requested four weeks of exclusive due diligence. Terms appeared opportunistic. But conscious of the ongoing ASIC litigation and super-exit restructuring costs, I wasn’t overly bullish. I was wrong.

BGH Capital has now made a A$24.75/share NBIO, by way of a Scheme. EQT is evaluating both proposals. The share price is up ~9% as I type to A$22/share.

Back on the 19th May 2026, European Lithium (EUR AU) entered into a reverse Scheme via a scrip deal with ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US).

CRML intended to issue 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share. Prior to today’s amended Scheme announcement, CRML’s share price had fallen ~57% from the 28th April 2026 NBIO.

The amendment involves a floating share Scheme transaction ratio, subject to a cap and collar, replacing the previous fixed ratio.

EQT Holdings (EQT AU), a corporate trustee and fiduciary-services outfit, announced yesterday morning a NBIO from TPG of A$24.55/share, by way of a Scheme.

TPG has requested four weeks of exclusive due diligence to further its proposal.

EQT is evaluating the proposal. Given the ASIC litigation and super-exit restructuring costs, I’d tilt opportunistic, and EQT rejects. But that’s not to suggest TPG will reload higher.

Gold fever continues Down Under as Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) enters into a Scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN).

OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.

Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected. Clean deal. Interlopers possible.

Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU), a manufacturer of plumbing components, has entered into a process deed with Brookfield, potentially leading to a A$4.75/share Offer by way of a Scheme.

Brookfield has been granted four weeks of additional due diligence to “progress the proposal”. Brookfield had previously fielded bids of A$4.15, A$4.25, and A$4.50/share.

Reliance’s board is unanimously supportive of terms, if firmed, which represent a 31.6% premium to undisturbed.

Inghams (ING AU) is Australia and New Zealand’s largest vertically integrated poultry producer with a market in each country of ~40% and ~35% respectively.

Ingham’s share price is down 37% in the past years via a combination of ballooning costs, a bird flu lockdown in WA, and its legacy concentrated market exposure (Woolworths and Coles).

Shares popped 6.7% on the 13th August amid media speculation about a possible acquisition (PSP Investment rumoured). Inghams denied receiving any approaches. But the situation is still worth discussing.

Back on the 2nd June, critical metals play Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU) entered into a Scheme with AIM-listed Central Asia Metals (CAML LN).

CAML is offering 0.06 new CAML shares for each Cygnus share, backing out a A$0.176/share indicative Offer price, or a 60% premium to last close. Clean Scheme.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th September, and expected implementation on the5th October. The IE (Grant Thornton) says “fair & reasonable“.

It’s been pretty quiet on the M&A front for Cleanaway Waste (CWY AU). KKR was rumoured to be interested four years ago. Around the time Cleanaway acquired Suez Sydney Assets.

Now Swedish PE outfit EQT has proposed taking Cleanaway private, via a Scheme, at A$3.13/share, a 32.1% premium to undisturbed. EQT has been afforded nine weeks of exclusive due diligence.

The indicative offer is subject to FIRB, ACCC, MACs, plus the standard Scheme vote from Cleanaway shareholders. Pricing appears fair. The board is supportive at A$3.13/share.