Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic’s “Low-Balled Offer”

• Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria's Novomatic, Ainsworth's largest shareholder (52.9%).

• Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best & final) - including a permitted dividend - a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair & reasonable. They are probably tight.

AGI is illiquid - look away now of this is not your thing.

---

Conclusions First:

• Illiquid arbs with questionable Offer premiums/pricing have not ben an ideal place to park money of late.

• The trifecta of failures in Hong Kong recently is illustrative.

• But whereas the HK arbs were pitched at levels quite clearly mispriced, the Offer for Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) is less clear cut.

• Optically, pricing is not ideal.

• The IE, however, backs out a A40.93-A$1.07/share fair value price range (premised on EBITDA multiples). I don't have any specific critique on this analysis.

• I think this (just) gets up.

• And that's a chunky franked dividend with respect to the Offer price. For those who can take advantage.

• Key shareholders have also been selling since the Offer was announced.