Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Makes Its Move

• On the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure announced a 15% stake Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), a US/Europe toll-road play, and subsequently floated a NBIO, which ultimately came to nought.

• IFM continued to accumulate shares, and on the 17th November 2025, announced it had added 2.48%, and held 35.03%.

• IFM has now launched a A$4.75/share Offer cash Offer, increasing to A$5.10/share (best & final) IF it secures 45%, or more, of shares out. Atlas may still reject terms.

This insight is bullish, as I expect Atlas to be supportive, and the enhanced terms unfold.

The Trade:

• IFM has played the slow game.

• The enhanced Offer price is a multi-year high, and a ~18% premium to last close.

• Ideally Lazard, Blackrock and State Street need to tip in to help secure the enhanced terms.

• Fundamentally, Atlas appears fairly priced. Shares were off ~8% since the FY25 results were announced.

• Atlas does boast low risk, stable yielding, toll road assets.

• And there are little to no viable options, in size, in Australia’s listed infrastructure space.

• Atlas and IFM don’t see to eye to eye - a rejection of the Offer is conceivable.

• IF assuming the pre-cons are met in four months, AND the enhanced Offer kicks in, with an estimated payment October, pay up ~A$4.85-A$4.90/share.