Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): The IE Says NOT Fair & Reasonable. All Eyes On Skyway's Put Option

• A lot to unpack: the Panel declines IFM’s application; the Skyway ROFO has expired; and the Target Statement is now out - the IE says NOT fair and NOT reasonable.

• The ROFO expiration should come as no surprise. Nor should the IE conclusion. IFM’s independent directors previously issued a strongly worded rebuttal to IFM’s Offer.

• A key tenant of IFM’s Offer evolves around the Skyworth put option: would/will IFM waive the put condition; or Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) irrevocably waives its right to put?

The Trade:

• Intriguing situation.

• The 45% acceptance threshold remains doable despite a hostile situation and considerable IE/ID pushback.

• If not in, I’d be picking up shares on weakness.

• IF IFM closes in on the 45% level, expect them to waive the Skyworth put condition.

• Key dates from here:

  • HSR Act expiration period occurs soon.

  • EC response due out on around the 5th June

  • Next close of the Offer: 11th June