Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

• On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.

• Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI’s largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded.

• Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.

The Trade:

• Robex has limited options.

• PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle “superior” terms.

• PRU is also funding the Robex termination fee.

• If you can take down borrow cheaply, look to short PRU, long PDI.

• Perhaps early 2Q26 completion.